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So far Chelsea Tran has created 51 blog entries.

I’ve never bought shares. How do I start investing?

nvesting for the first time feels a bit like going bouldering. It looks fun, but the fear of falling on your face and breaking a bone seems reason enough to stay away.

The good news is that it’s far less scary than you’d imagine, and there are many ways to protect against the financial equivalent of a broken bone.

We asked under-30s to send us their questions. Here are the results.

Q: What’s the first step to investing? Do I need a broker to get started?

There are dozens of online platforms that allow you to invest using your phone – no broker necessary. Many platforms no longer have a minimum investment amount, meaning that you can get started with spare change.

Start by creating an account with a trading platform (more about choosing a platform below) and deposit some cash into that account. Once your identity is verified, you can usually start investing immediately. The whole process can take less than five minutes.

The federal government’s Moneysmart website is a good source of reliable information for beginners.

Fractional investing, which allows you to buy a portion of a unit in a share or ETF rather than restricting you to buying only whole units, has made is easy and cheap for beginners to build a diversified portfolio.

Craig Semmens, the chief executive of stockbroking firm Phillip Capital Australia, says trading apps have made real-time news, price alerts, charts and commentary readily available to everybody.

“Advancements in technology have also meant overseas markets that once felt out of reach for retail investors are suddenly more accessible,” he says. “US heavyweights like Tesla, Apple, Meta and Nvidia sit in the same portfolios as the big four banks and the likes of Rio Tinto, BHP and Wesfarmers for example, giving investors exposure to sectors and stories shaping the global economy.”

 

Q: How much do I need to start investing? How often should I invest?

There’s no right answer to this, but investing small amounts regularly can be a good strategy for those who don’t have the liquidity to invest big sums in one go. It’s called dollar-cost averaging.

Some platforms allow people to invest with as little as $5 or $10.

One option is “round-up” investing. If you buy a coffee for $5.50, for example, the purchase gets rounded up to $6 and the additional 50¢ is invested into your portfolio.

Q: Is it better to invest in ETFs or individual stocks?

Choosing what to invest in can be a daunting task.

Patricia Garcia, a financial adviser at Your Vision Financial Solutions, says investing in ETFs is an easy and cheap way to diversify your portfolio.

Diversification is the process of investing across various asset classes, industries and geographies.

ETFs can be bought and sold on a stock exchange, just like a regular share, and they are automatically diversified given their multipart compositions.

“If you’re starting with a very small amount, and adding small amounts over time, you’re not going to be able to get much diversification if you’re building your own stock portfolio,” Garcia says.

Morningstar associate investment specialist Simonelle Mody says she previously bought individual stocks but found she underperformed the wider market so now buys ETFs. Plus, self-managing a portfolio of individual shares is time-consuming.

Q: What’s the best share trading platform in Australia?

Platforms have proliferated so it can feel daunting. The short answer is that different platforms serve different purposes.

The table below lists 20 of the most popular investment platforms, their minimum deposit amount and whether they offer US shares, ETFs and cryptocurrency.

Q: Are there any fees and costs when deciding to invest?

The cost of investing comes down to a combination of things including brokerage, trading, investment and administration fees. There’s no uniform way of charging, so it’s difficult for us to provide a list.

The above table shows the fees charged to execute a single trade. These are generally known as trading fees.

Some are dependent on the size of the trade, others are just a flat fee. Some platforms have zero trading costs, but charge administration fees.

Q: Should I invest in cryptocurrency?

Crypto is a complicated beast. If you get lucky, the returns can be eye-watering, but if you don’t, the losses can bring their own tears,

“Crypto should just be a high-risk part of a portfolio, if you’re wanting to do it as a sort of hobby on the side, and a very small percentage of your overall wealth creation strategy,” Mody says.

Q: Can I manage my own investments or should I go with a ready-made portfolio?

While some investors prefer to select their own stocks, others like the simplicity of investing in a pre-made portfolio, which is usually constructed according to an individual’s risk appetite and investment horizon.

But pre-made portfolios can be a little more expensive.

Morningstar’s Mody compared the fees for pre-made portfolios offered on six platforms. She assumed an initial investment of $1000, annualised monthly fees and a five-year investment period.

Mody also assumed a 7 per cent annual average return for a balanced portfolio over the next five years, which broadly aligns with Morningstar’s long-term return expectations.

The portfolios tend to include a component of ASX, S&P 500 and other high-performing, often tech-heavy, international stocks.

Some portfolios have delivered much higher returns in recent years – who cares if fees are high if your returns are shooting the lights out, right? – but past returns are not a reliable predictor of future earnings.

This comparison is focused on fees, does not account for variation in returns and should only be used as guide for further research by investors themselves.

Stockspot chief executive Chris Brycki defended his organisation’s comparatively high fee by saying: “For our fee, clients get access to a licensed financial adviser and free kids accounts. Our higher allocation to gold has also helped our portfolios outperform all other diversified options over one, three, five and 10 years.”

Q: Should I keep my money in the bank, or should I invest in stocks/ETFs?

While interest rates have been higher recently, the Reserve Bank of Australia is in a cutting cycle. This means the interest paid to savers with money in savings accounts is falling and at present, the best high-interest savings account rates are about 5 per cent. But money in a savings account is safe, which makes these accounts well suited for short-term goals, like holidays and emergency funds.

“Unfortunately, you can’t park all your money in a savings account and expect to build real wealth,” Mody says. “High-yield savings accounts definitely don’t come close to beating inflation over time, and even though it feels psychologically safer, you’re definitely quietly losing money every year.”

If you’re saving for a house deposit and keeping the money invested, it’s possible that if the market crashes, a substantial portion of your savings goes out the window with it. So, exercise caution.

Garcia says the risks associated with an ETF are fairly low.

“If you’re being exposed to thousands of units, thousands of different companies, there’s a very low chance that all of those companies will disappear,” she says.

Q: Should I buy Australian or overseas investments?

One isn’t better than the other, but it’s always good to diversify, and that includes by country. Australia’s economy is relatively small, so exposing your portfolio to larger markets is a useful way of buffering against fluctuations in the domestic market.

“Australia is a small country in the big scheme of things when it comes to the world economy, so it’s good to make sure that you’re exposed to multiple countries, and you can do that through pre-mixed portfolios, ETFs and managed funds,” Garcia says.

Q: Is it better to buy and sell or buy and hold?

It depends on what your investment goals are, but normally, the longer you stay invested in a diversified portfolio, the better.

“Short-term investing is much higher risk,” Garcia says. “It’s about time in the market, not timing the market.”

Mody agrees. “I have a long term-mindset and tangible goals, so I can grow my wealth steadily, as opposed to chasing those crazy returns through things like crypto,” she says.

One of her main goals is to achieve a $100,000 portfolio by age 30. She hopes to achieve this by dollar-cost averaging into ETFs monthly.

Q: What level of investment risk should I take as a young person?

Again, this is goal-dependent, but the general thesis is that the younger you are, the more risk you can afford to take. This is because you have more time to recoup any investment losses you might make.

That being said, if you intend to make a substantial purchase in the next couple of years using the money you have invested, investing may not be the right strategy. If you lose a decent chunk of your portfolio to market fluctuations, you won’t have time to build it back up again.

“If you’re wanting to buy a property in the next year or two, for example, you might not want to invest those funds because you don’t have what we call the right timeframe to invest. You have to be able to ride out the market ups and downs,” Garcia says.

She explains that it’s fine to invest if you’re willing to delay your purchase. Then, once you’ve recouped your losses you can sell all your investments and put the cash towards a deposit.

Semmens says to “be prudent. Don’t rush in. It’s about investing over the long term”.

Mody says losing money early into your investing journey can have a larger impact than later on, when you are more financially equipped to weather bad economic conditions. So, it’s worth considering how much you’re willing to lose.

Q: What are the tax implications of investing?

If you are invested in shares that pay dividends, these need to be included as income in your end of financial year tax return, and are taxed at your marginal income tax rate.

Tax implications also arise when you sell your investments – if they have appreciated in value.

But if you hold on to them, you aren’t taxed until you sell for a profit.

You will be taxed on your profit at your marginal income tax rate, but if you sell an asset like a share, an ETF or crypto that you’ve owned for at least 12 months, you will be eligible for a 50 per cent capital gains tax discount.

All you have to do is declare the capital gains, and the dates you bought and sold the asset on your tax return.

The table below shows the potential capital gains tax implications of a $1000 investment that has appreciated to $1400.

So, there it is. Do your research, start small and don’t be intimidated if you choose to embark on an investing journey.

I’ve never bought shares. How do I start investing?2025-09-05T18:25:05+10:00

What it takes to be in Australia’s top 1 per cent

If you earn a total income of $375,378 a year or higher, congratulations; you are in Australia’s top 1 per cent of taxpayers.

And if your total household gross income is above $531,652, your household earns more than 99 per cent of Australian households.

By contrast, the median Australian taxpayer earns $55,619, while the median household gross income is $92,856, and for the lowest 10 per cent, those figures are just $11,036 and $26,181, respectively.

Among the 1 per cent, there’s been a sharp increase in income over five years. The comparable figures in 2019-20 to be considered a 1 per cent-er were total income of $315,770 and household income of $460,028, which amounts to a rise of 19 per cent and 16 per cent, respectively.

These figures – derived from Australian Taxation Office and Australian Bureau of Statistics data by the Grattan Institute – provide one snapshot of wealth in Australia.

Grattan published the material ahead of Tuesday’s federal budget to help contextualise debates about the budget winners and losers, providing additional insight into what Australians earn and own.

Earnings discrepancies

If you’re thinking the income figures – and especially the average – seem lower that the figure you’ve typically seen quoted, you’d be right.

The most commonly quoted earnings figure is average full-time earnings (currently $104,765 a year), but this figure has limitations, such as excluding part-time workers.

It’s the kind of figure that leads us to think Australians are better off than they actually are.

Grattan’s housing and economic security program director Brendan Coates, deputy director Joey Moloney and associate Matthew Bowes say average full-time earnings is “not a good guide to the typical Australian’s income”.

“More than three-quarters of Australian workers earn less than the average full-time wage of $104,765 a year.”

Instead, considering the median is a more instructive measure. On this basis, the median full-time worker earns $90,416, a figure that drops to $67,786 when part-time workers are accounted for.

Location matters

To some extent, what you earn is a function of where you live.

Western Australia has the highest percentage of taxpayers in the top 45 per cent tax bracket – those who earn more than $190,000 – at 5.5 per cent. NSW and the ACT are not far behind, lagged by Victoria and Queensland.

But even in high-wage Sydney, those in the top tax bracket are an elite class; just 7 per cent of Sydneysiders earn an income that puts them in the top tax bracket, Grattan’s analysis shows.

Net wealth

Wealth isn’t solely a function of income. Debt has a big role to play, as do other assets such as your home, superannuation and investments.

By considering all of these factors, Grattan has calculated how much you need in total household net wealth to be considered in the top 1 per cent in Australia.

And not surprisingly it varies by age. Those between 25 and 40 require net wealth of $3.1 million to be in the top 1 per cent, while for those aged 41 to 64, that figure jumps to $7.7 million.

Households of over 65s have the highest net wealth – with the top 1 per cent of households controlling over $10.9 million each. This makes sense, given they’ve had more time to accumulate their wealth.

By contrast, the bottom 25 per cent of households have total net wealth of $78,000 for those aged 25 to 40, $332,000 for those aged 41-64 and $433,000 for those aged 65 and over.

Super and home equity

One of the questions people frequently ask about their super balance is how it compares to others their age.

Whether you’re tracking for a $5 million, $2 million or $500,000 retirement, where does your super rank in comparison to your friends and neighbours?

Super balances are another metric where age plays a significant role. The longer you’ve worked since 1992 – when employer contributions became compulsory under the super guarantee – the more you’ve received, and the more time that money has been invested.

Despite not having compulsory super their entire working lives, the 65+ cohort still has the highest balances across the age cohorts among the 1 per cent – with $2 million for individuals and $3.3 million for households – possibly as a result of moving assets into the lower tax super environment as they reach retirement.

But many in this cohort also have no super – the median balance for the 65+ age group is actually $0 – which can be attributed to the older end of this cohort having missed out on the super guarantee, and many older women spending little, if any, time in paid employment.

To have a super balance among the top 1 per cent if you’re 41 to 64, you’ll need $1.4 million as an individual or $2 million as a household, while a much lower balance of $293,000 for an individual or $473,000 as a household will get you there if you’re aged 25 to 40.

It’s a similar story for home equity, with those 41 and over – who typically bought their homes earlier and less expensively – having ridden successive property booms and paid down their mortgages significantly.

To be in the top 1 per cent for home equity, over 65s need equity of $3 million in their homes, while for 41 to 64-year-olds it’s $2.8 million and for those aged 25 to 40 it’s $1.3 million.

The overall picture

As shown above, what you need to rank in the top 1 per cent by all measures varies according to your age.

Regardless of your age, you need $375,378 in individual income, $531,652 in household income, but in terms of net wealth, super and home equity, the older you are, the more you need to maintain poll position.

What it takes to be in Australia’s top 1 per cent2025-04-11T09:32:12+10:00

So long, London – Russians buy digs at home

THREE years into the war with Ukraine, Russia’s wealthiest are increasingly bringing their money home, fuelling an unlikely rebound in high-end Moscow real estate.

Faced with fewer options to spend abroad as international sanctions force banks to crack down, many Russians are repatriating cash and parking it in the safe haven of domestic property. Others are using real estate as a hedge against inflation that has surged since the invasion of Ukraine, forcing the central bank to jack up rates to record highs.

“The screws are being tightened on people with Russian citizenship around the world,” said Ekaterina Rumyantseva, founder of Moscow-based luxury real estate broker Kalinka Ecosystem. “Everyone now realises that the safest place to keep capital is in your own country.”

The influx of cash is helping Moscow buck a slowdown hitting other real estate markets from London to Hong Kong. Luxury apartment sales priced at 1.95 million roubles (S$26,703) a square metre and upwards in Moscow gained almost 40 per cent last year, according to NF Group, formerly known as Knight Frank Russia. And prices increased 21 per cent, pushing the Russian capital squarely into the same price tier as Paris and London.

A flurry of high-end apartment and villa projects springing up across Moscow give a glimpse into Russia’s uneven economy as the war grinds on. Government spending related to the invasion has stoked growth, but also inflation and higher rates. At the same time, widening sanctions are choking off the opportunity for Russians to invest overseas, forcing them to repatriate cash and seek a safe haven within their own borders.

And while many large Russian fortunes have been minted over recent years, the latest dynamics are driving some high-end properties to the eye-watering levels more commonly seen in Dubai or London.

Take the 12,500 square feet Art Nouveau-style towered residence in the Levenson project, built in the early 20th century by prominent architect Fyodor Schechtel and located in a renovated mansion in Moscow’s historical core. The project includes two dozen apartments and is being built by Vesper, one of Moscow’s biggest developers of luxury property. The home is near the Patriarch’s Ponds, where the family of Leo Tolstoy used to skate in winter, and was among the most expensive properties sold last year at about 3.8 billion roubles, according to Kalinka.

Many of the high-end projects being developed are located in central areas near the city’s biggest attractions and have vast onsite parks.

“Developers have started to offer unique expensive lots within elite houses more often,” said Dmitry Khalin, managing partner at Intermark Intown Sales, which formerly operated in Russia under the Savills brand. “We see a high demand for expensive residences with good views.”

The Kamishy project, based in the exclusive Zhukovka suburb on Moscow’s western outskirts, is emblematic of the new projects coming online. It includes 11 two-storey villas containing floor-to-ceiling windows and minimalistic interiors, surrounded by gardens and bordered by the Moskva river. Prices start at US$25 million and reach as high as US$45 million. Five have already been sold. The architect is Yury Grigoryan from Meganom, who designed the “skinny” 262 Fifth Avenue skyscraper in New York.

While precise details on the identity of the buyers flooding into the market are difficult to come by, Kalinka said that the majority are aged between 40 and 50. Typically, they are owners of large industrial companies or top managers, but also include clients in IT, show business and sport.

Against the volatile economic backdrop of the war, they see real estate as a refuge from gyrations in local assets including the rouble. While the Bank of Russia’s key interest rate at 21 per cent offers attractive rates on deposits, the local currency sank about 25 per cent last year.

People are taking “a balanced approach to asset diversification”, according to Andrey Solovyev, partner at NF Group.

The dynamics in Moscow’s property market contrast with other global cities traditionally popular with the Russian diaspora. London, for example, gained the Londongrad moniker after attracting residents such as Roman Abramovich and Mikhail Fridman. The UK capital’s top end market had a lacklustre year in 2024 and is forecast to fall this year.

To be sure, wealthy Russians are not turning away from foreign real estate altogether, with the Indonesian island of Bali and Thailand seen as among the most in demand. But they are fast dropping down the leaderboard of buyers in places such as Dubai, a notable development given it was a magnet for many after the invasion. Russian passport holders slipped to No 9 last year in the rankings of the top 10 real estate buyers there, after holding the No 1 slot in 2022, according to local broker Betterhomes. That comes as the city sees a huge influx of global wealth.

Overall, demand among wealthy Russians for foreign real estate fell 24 per cent last year compared with 2023, according to Intermark.

Back in Moscow, high interest rates and rising construction costs may cool the pace of high-end property supply this year. Developers may be forced to accumulate land banks instead of launching new projects, according to NF Group’s Solovyev.

Other developments are also springing up, though, in other parts of the country to take advantage of the influx of cash.

Sochi, the Black Sea resort which hosted the 2014 Olympic Winter Games, is among the most popular locations for wealthy Russians seeking to buy property. More recent high-end projects there include the Mantera Seaview Residence – a complex spreading over six hectares which includes a hotel, residences and a plethora of amenities ranging from saunas to a snow room. BLOOMBERG

So long, London – Russians buy digs at home2025-02-13T16:36:30+11:00

AI investor ‘bubble’ echoes dotcom bust: Ray Dalio

New York | Investor exuberance over artificial intelligence has fuelled a “bubble” in US stocks that resembles the build-up to the dotcom bust at the turn of the millennium, billionaire investor Ray Dalio has warned.

Mr Dalio told the Financial Times that “pricing has got to levels which are high at the same time as there’s an interest rate risk, and that combination could prick the bubble”.

The warning from Mr Dalio, the founder of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates and one of the highest-profile figures on Wall Street, comes as concerns swirl over whether the boom in US AI stocks has gone too far.

Investors also remain concerned about elevated borrowing costs, worries that sharpened after Federal Reserve officials in December trimmed their expectations for rate cuts this year.

“Where we are in the cycle right now is very similar to where we were between 1998 or 1999,” Mr Dalio said.

“In other words, there’s a major new technology that certainly will change the world and be successful. But some people are confusing that with the investments being successful.”

The late 1990s saw a run-up in tech valuations, powered in part by low interest rates and growing adoption of the internet, followed by a brutal correction that came as Alan Greenspan’s US Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index doubled in 1999, only to fall about 80 per cent by October 2002. The index has doubled since the beginning of 2023 as stocks such as AI-focused chip maker Nvidia have powered higher.

Wall Street stocks slumped on Monday (Tuesday AEDT) after DeepSeek, a Chinese AI company linked to a little-known hedge fund, published a paper claiming its newest AI model rivals those of OpenAI and Meta Platforms in performance, yet at a lower cost and with less sophisticated hardware.

Nvidia shed nearly $US600 billion ($1 trillion) in market value on Monday.

DeepSeek’s apparent success calls into question the potential returns on hundreds of billions of dollars invested by Silicon Valley companies in AI data centres, and whether China has managed to find a way to compete despite restrictions on its ability to import high-end chips from the US.

OpenAI, backed by Microsoft, last week announced a plan to invest up to $US500 billion in AI infrastructure. The company’s ChatGPT was the top-rated free app on the Apple app store until it was displaced on Monday by DeepSeek’s AI assistant.

‘Capitalism alone cannot win’

Mr Dalio, who retired as chairman of Bridgewater in 2021 but remains on the board, has long advocated economic engagement with China.

He wrote last year that “the key question isn’t whether or not I should invest in China so much as how much”. He warned, however, that the stakes in AI are unusually high.

“The tech war between China and the US is far more important than profitability, not only for economic superiority, but for military superiority,” he told the FT.

“Those who are going to pay attention to profitability with sharp pencils are not going to win that race,” Mr Dalio added.

Reinforcing the elusiveness of AI profit, OpenAI founder Sam Altman wrote on X this month that the company was losing money on its $US200-per-month ChatGPT Pro plan because of unexpectedly heavy usage.

As US technology groups invest lavishly, President Donald Trump has pledged to support American AI in his second term.

China has offered financial assistance for its AI industry, including the launch of funds set up to support its embattled semiconductor industry. Meanwhile, the US under former president Joe Biden extended billions of dollars of subsidies for groups to build chips on American soil.

Mr Dalio conceded that state support for jockeying AI developers was inevitable given the importance of winning the global race, even if it came at the expense of profit.

“In our system, by and large, we are moving to a more industrial-complex- type of policy in which there is going to be government-mandated and government-influenced activity, because it is so important.

“Capitalism alone – the profit motive alone – cannot win this battle.”

AI investor ‘bubble’ echoes dotcom bust: Ray Dalio2025-01-30T16:54:46+11:00

Financial Planning Message – December 2024

Following two remarkable years of global equity returns, it is understandable to approach 2025 with degree

of trepidation.

As the curtain draws on 2024, we are heading into 2025 with the same concerns we had at the start of 2024,
namely high interest rates, inflation and uncertainty/ geopolitical risks.

  • All eyes are on the sluggish Chinese economy and consumer sentiment, more importantly how the government stimulus measures will play out to revitalise the real estate sector, boost liquidity and increase demand to cater for overproduction. The potential of increased tariffs under the Trump administration will further exacerbate these challenges.
  •  2024 was the year of elections, more than 60 countries went to the polls, ( 50% of the world’s population ), this in turn created opportunity for the ‘improbable becoming possible’.
  •  Equity markets have largely navigated through the volatility of the bond market, however it is likely that the significant spike in yields going forward will weigh on equity valuations.
  • An optimistic outlook for the US – the base case is that the US ( as the main driver of financial markets ) is expected to progress to a ‘soft landing’ which is supported by further easing of interest rates, increased corporate earnings due to lower corporate tax, further de regulation of the financial sector and an increased investment in technologies leading to improved productivity.
  •  The Australian Economy faces many challenges in 2025. The economic risks in China, being our key trading partner, will impact adversely and become more evident as we progress into 2025. These challenges will be further compounded by high inflation from the geopolitical environment, higher government spending / deficits, inequality and no productivity for almost a decade will weigh on the RBA in keeping interest rates higher for longer.
  • A recent Mckinsey report on the Australian economy notes that our business investment is now at recession level, our productivity growth is at 30th place out of 35 developed countries, living standards are declining and are at a national emergency level. Our GDP growth now is the weakest since the 1990’s recession ( excluding Covid-19 ).

Federal Government spending hit 12.3% of Nominal GDP in September 2024.

The ‘Golden goose’ that produced our fair and prosperous society is gasping for air – (Mckinsey)

On balance, it appears there will be significant headwinds for the Australian households and the economy in
general as we enter 2025.

 

Accordingly, the festive season is a great time to enjoy a break but also make time to reflect on the past, take control of the present and ‘sow the seeds’ of success for tomorrow.

Some practical steps to align your long term strategy may include :-

  • Review Superannuation – Multiple funds or funds with high costs and low performance compromise your long term / retirement plans.
  • Review Non Super Investments – Re-evaluate performance and tax effectiveness, also rebalance / diversify.
  • Review cashflows and eliminate unnecessary lifestyle costs in light of the prevailing environment.
  • Let’s not forget managing your tax position, this is always relevant be it during your working life, in retirement (with respect to investments) or as part of your estate plan.
  • Make incremental savings ‘dollar cost average’ as opposed to taking a significant position when
    investing.
  • Diversification and history are our best friends, reflect and actively rebalance asset allocations.
  • Consider Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP) given the attractive investment returns.
  • Confirm borrowing / refinancing options well before due dates and explore potential savings across
    relevant lenders – competition appears to be intensifying across the major lenders.
  • Insurance is always important, potentially critical during extreme business cycles as are likely to
    unfold in 2025. It is not desirable to execute forced sales at depressed values.
  • Those running a business – Document a business plan, complete a business valuation and be aware
    of the Small Business Capital Gains Tax concessions (SBCGT ).
  • Explore and utilise First Home Incentives – Including The First Home Super Saver Scheme ( FHSS ).
  • With the festive season upon us, I would like to take a moment to express my sincere gratitude to all our
    clients and associates, thank you for placing trust in AMCO.

In January 2025 AMCO celebrates 28 years since inception. The practice was founded on the vision of creating a long-term wealth management firm that enlarges and enriches the lives of those with whom we interact.

We are aware of the challenges you are facing during these uncertain times and are there to advise and navigate the environment with professional care.

From the team at AMCO, we wish you and your family good health, peace of mind and prosperity in the year ahead.

 

Merry Christmas.

Danny D. Mazevski
Chartered Tax & Financial Adviser
FIPA CTA FTMA MBA (Un.NSW/SYD) Dip.FS JP

 

Any advice in this document is of a general nature only and has not been tailored to your personal circumstances.
Please seek personal financial and or tax advice prior to acting on this information

Financial Planning Message – December 20242025-01-07T16:20:03+11:00

How far will Sydney and Melbourne house prices fall in 2025?

Sydney and Melbourne housing prices could fall by 5 per cent in 2025, driven lower by a glut of listings, unaffordable prices and high interest rates, the latest Housing Boom and Bust report by SQM Research predicts.

Property prices in Canberra and Hobart are also predicted to drop by up to 6 per cent and 3 per cent respectively.

Report author and SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher said the bulk of the forecast price falls would occur in the first half of next year before interest rate cuts, which are expected by the June quarter.

“Current interest rate settings are biting the community more in these cities which, on our measurements, are in overvalued territory and/or are experiencing slower economic growth compared to the cities and states that have enjoyed good economic growth,” he said.

“However, once interest rate cuts do occur, we are expecting a speedy bounce in demand for Sydney and Melbourne in particular, which both are still experiencing underlying housing shortage relative to the strong population growth rates.

“This may well mean there is a good window for buyers at this time for our two largest capital cities.”

Sydney home values started to weaken last month, albeit marginally, falling by 0.1 per cent, while Melbourne slipped by 0.2 per cent, separate CoreLogic data shows.

However, the pace of decline has increased over the four weeks that ended on November 24, with CoreLogic’s daily index showing prices falling by 0.2 per cent and 0.3 per cent in the markets respectively.

The two leading indicators for housing prices – auction clearance rates and the amount of stock on market – suggested price drops in those cities would persist, Mr Christopher said.

Clearance rates have slumped to the low 40 per cent range across Sydney, which historically has indicated housing price falls of a moderate to potentially heavy extent, according to SQM’s data. Melbourne’s clearance rates have fallen to around 45 per cent, signalling an ongoing downturn.

At the same time, stock on the market has piled up. Stock levels are running higher than the start of the downturn of 2018 to 2019 – a period where Sydney housing prices fell by about 12 per cent from peak to trough.

‘Ripe for a correction’

Similarly, in Melbourne, total listings have blown out to about 42,000 dwellings – 5000 above the long-term average, and a level that has created housing price falls in the past, SQM’s analysis shows.

“The Sydney housing market is ripe for a correction. Our leading indicators tell us it’s happening, and our fair valuation models tell us it should be happening,” Mr Christopher said.

“Melbourne currently has a surplus of properties and the situation has deteriorated over the course of 2024, indicating an ongoing weakness in the market.

“But we’re not expecting a house price crash because there’s still a considerable shortage of homes in those cities compared to underlying demand for accommodation.”

By contrast, house prices in Perth, Brisbane, Adelaide and Darwin are expected to pick up steam.

Perth prices are forecast to rise by up to 19 per cent, the sharpest increase of all capital cities, followed by Brisbane with 14 per cent growth, Adelaide with 13 per cent rise and Darwin with 8 per cent gain.

While still the largest gains in the country, they are slower than the increases notched up so far this year. As at the end of October, Perth dwelling values had increased by 24 per cent, Brisbane was up by 14.5 per cent and Adelaide by 14.8 per cent according to CoreLogic.

“We’re seeing nothing in those markets that suggests an imminent price decline,” Mr Christopher said.

“Stock levels are extremely tight, demand is very strong due to ongoing population growth and their economies are doing well.”

Interest rate factors

Mr Christopher’s base case prediction – one of the four potential scenarios – assumes interest rates fall by 0.5 per cent by mid-next year.

The forecast is also based on the assumptions that population growth is at least 500,000 over 2025, and that there are no new spikes in inflation that would trigger a rate rise or would prompt the RBA to hold off easing.

In a second scenario where there is no rate cut, but no surge in inflation, and with population still increasing by 500,000 or more, house prices in Sydney and Canberra would tumble by 8 per cent, Melbourne by 7 per cent, and Hobart by 5 per cent.

It will reduce Perth’s price gains to 11 per cent, Brisbane 9 per cent, Adelaide by 8 per cent and Darwin by 7 per cent.

Paul Bloxham, HSBC’s chief economist said the risk of the Reserve Bank not cutting interest rates has increased.

“On a core basis, the economy is still operating at, probably still a bit beyond its full capacity, and the very slow decline in inflation means the RBA really can’t consider cutting interest rates anytime soon,” he said.

“The job market is still at, or slightly beyond full employment and does not appear to be loosening further at this stage.

“If it turns out the job market is not loosening further, then rate cuts may not happen at all. At the moment, we think there is a 25 per cent chance that interest rates don’t get cut at all in 2025.”

Oxford Economics senior economist Maree Kilroy said while interest rate cuts could be delayed until June next year, they would be deeper than what the market was predicting.

“We’re expecting the RBA to slash the cash rate by a total of 1.25 percentage points to bring it back to neutral settings,” she said.

“This will improve mortgage affordability and help price growth in the following year.”

How far will Sydney and Melbourne house prices fall in 2025?2024-11-28T16:07:46+11:00

Warren Buffetts’ s 11 tips for investing and life

1. “If you’re smart, you don’t need a lot of money. And if you’re dumb, no amount of money is going to help you.”

If you’re smart you will understand the power of compounding interest. You will know the difference between a company that has a durable competitive advantage and one that doesn’t. And you will know how to value a company to determine if it is overpriced or underpriced. With that knowledge, you can take even a small sum of money and grow it exponentially to be worth millions of dollars. But if you’re dumb, even if you start with millions, eventually you are going to lose it all.

2. “The important thing is to know what you know and know what you don’t know.”

The secret behind Buffett’s incredible success is not an incredible intellect or being the all-knowing oracle of Omaha. In fact, it’s just the opposite. It’s actually about knowing what he doesn’t know. This stops Buffett from making investment decisions he isn’t qualified to make. An accountant would be inviting folly if he tried to play doctor.

Buffett feels the same way about investing. There are certain companies he has no idea how to value, and as a result he stays away from them. Then there are companies that he understands and feels very qualified to value – these are the ones that have made him super rich.

Buffett refers to this world of businesses that he understands well enough to value as his “circle of competence”– which means he is confident in his ability to value them. If he can confidently value companies, he can confidently tell if the sharemarket is undervaluing them or overvaluing them.

For Buffett, being able to spot when the market is undervaluing a company shows him where the big money is.

3. “Don’t save what is left after spending; spend what is left after saving.”

One gets rich by getting their money to work for them, but that won’t happen unless they first have money saved up to make that initial investment. For most people, the first money they have to invest comes from saving a percentage of what they earn from a job.

In Buffett’s teenage days, he was obsessed with saving money from the various little businesses he ran. And with his obsession for saving money came an aversion to spending it.

Buffett was so averse to spending money that he drove an old Volkswagen Beetle long after he had become a multimillionaire, and he still lives in the same house he paid $US31,500 for in 1957. In Buffett’s case, saving money was way more fun than spending money, unless, of course, he was buying stocks.

4. “My wealth has come from a combination of living in America, some lucky genes, and compound interest.”

Albert Einstein once said, “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it earns it … He who doesn’t, pays it.”

Buffett took this to heart early in his life and it truly has been the gift that kept on giving.

Here is how compounding interest works: $50,000 compounding at 10 per cent a year will be worth $55,000 after one year, $60,500 after two years, $66,550 after three years. After 10 years it will be worth $129,687. After 20 years it will be worth $336,375. After 30 years, $872,470. After 40 years, $2,262,962. After 50 years, $5,869,542.

In the first 10 years, we made $79,687 in interest on our $50,000 investment. But between the years 10 and 20 we made $206,688 in interest. And between years 20 to 30 we made $536,095 in interest. Between the years 30 and 40 we made $1,390,492 in interest. Between the years 40 and 50 we made $3,606,580 in interest. As the pot gets bigger, we make more and more in interest, which grows the pot even larger.

When Buffett took over Berkshire Hathaway, he stopped the company from paying a dividend so all the earnings would build up in Berkshire. Using his investment prowess, Buffett got Berkshire’s shareholders’ equity to compound at the phenomenal rate of 18.55 per cent a year for 59 years, growing shareholder’s equity from $US24.5 million in 1965 to approximately $US561.2 billion in 2024, for a total gain of 2,290,512 per cent.

Responding to the increase in shareholder’s equity, the market price for Berkshire’s stock, from 1965 to 2024, grew from $US12.50 a Class A share to $US632,000 a Class A share, which equates to an annual compounding growth rate of approximately 20.15 per cent.

Note: Our $50,000 investment compounding at a rate of 20.15 per cent a year, for 59 years, would be worth $2.52 billion in year 59, which is exactly how several of Buffett’s early investors ended up billionaires.

5. “From the standpoint of investments, you need two courses in a business school: one is how to value a business, and the other is how to think about sharemarket fluctuations.”

If Buffett was teaching a course in business school on how to value a business, he would teach students that there are basically two kinds of businesses.

(1) Businesses that sell commodity-type products, which have lots of price competition, low profit margins, low returns on equity, and volatile net earnings. These are the companies you don’t want to own.

(2) Exceptional businesses, which have some kind of durable competitive advantage, as evidenced by little price competition, high profit margins, high returns on equity, consistent earnings, and are buying back their shares. These are the right companies to own, and once identified, Buffett would explain to the students how to tell if they are selling at a price that makes business sense to buy them.

Buffett’s course on sharemarket fluctuations would provide a historical study of what market forces create buying opportunities. He would teach the students the history of events and forces that dramatically affect stock prices, what drives them from insane highs to depressing lows, and how these events can affect the share prices of companies with a durable competitive advantage and in the process create investment opportunities.

6. “You don’t want to be a no-emotion person in all of your life, but you definitely want to be a no-emotion person in making an investment or business decision.”

Buffett’s investment decisions – after weighing the economics of the business and the price he is paying – are based solely on whether or not he believes he is getting good value for his money. He’s very cold about it. In his early days, if he had a position that was making him money, even if he loved the company, if something better came along, he would sell it in a nanosecond and go with the new prospect.

He bought and sold his favourite Capital Cities Communications several times before he settled into a long-term position with it. This is the reason Buffett doesn’t react with fear in a stock market panic. His lack of emotion enables him to see long-term value and buy when everyone else is running for the fire escape. It’s also why he doesn’t get caught up in the euphoria of a bull market and end up paying insane prices for businesses.

7. “The most important item over time in valuation is obviously interest rates. If interest rates are destined to be at very low levels … it makes any stream of earnings from investments worth more money.”

Let’s say that Company A constantly produces earnings of $10 million a year. In a world of 10 per cent interest rates, we would have to invest $100 million in bonds that were paying 10 per cent to earn $10 million a year. Buffett would argue that Company A is worth $100 million relative to a 10 per cent interest rate. ($100 million × 10 per cent = $10 million.) Now, let’s say interest rates dropped to 2 per cent. We would have to invest $500 million in bonds paying 2 per cent to earn $10 million a year. ($500 million × 2 per cent = $10 million.) Buffett would argue that Company A’s earnings of $10 million a year are now worth $500 million relative to the 2 per cent interest rate.

The same inverse relationship also exists when discounting the future cash flows of a business to present value. The higher the discount rate, the lower the present value. The lower the discount rate, the higher the present value. So, a payment of $10 million a year for 10 years, discounted to present value, using a rate of 10 per cent, would have a present value of $61.3 million. But if we used a 2 per cent discount rate, a payment of $10 million a year for 10 years would have a present value of $89.4 million.

When interest rates drop, the relative value of what businesses earn goes up – and eventually, stock prices will follow upward as well. But when interest rates go up, the relative value of what businesses earn goes down – and stock prices will eventually go down as well.

8. “Obviously, profits are worth a whole lot more if the government bond yield is 1 per cent than they’re worth if the government bond yield is 5 per cent.”

For Buffett, all investment valuations are invariably linked to interest rates. If you owned a share of Apple stock and it earned $6.43 a share in 2023, you would need $128 invested in a 5 per cent government bond to yield you $6.43. But in a world of 1 per cent government bonds, you would need $643 invested in 1 per cent government bonds to yield $6.43. So as interest rates go down, stock prices “tend” to go up. And if interest rates go up, stock prices “tend” to go down.

Why government bonds? If they are United States Treasury bonds, they are thought of as being risk-free of default. In 2024, 10-year US Treasury bonds traded at 4.3 per cent, which gave Apple’s $6.43-a-share-earnings a relative value of $149 a share, against Apple shares reaching an all-time trading high in 2024 of $225 a share, which was 66 per cent above its relative value of $149 a share.

Buffett’s response to this overvaluation was to start selling his holdings in Apple. Even the best of companies can become overvalued – and when they do, Buffett will often cut his position.

9. “We do like having a lot of money to be able to operate very fast and very big. We know we won’t get those opportunities frequently … In the next 20 or 30 years there’ll be two or three times when it’ll be raining gold and all you have to do is go outside. But we don’t know when they will happen. And we have a lot of money to commit.”

Charlie Munger used to put it like this: “You have to be very patient. You have to wait until something comes along, which, at the price you’re paying, is easy. That’s contrary to human nature, just to sit there all day long doing nothing, waiting. It’s easy for us, we have a lot of other things to do. But for an ordinary person, can you imagine just sitting for five years doing nothing? You don’t feel active, you don’t feel useful, so you do something stupid.”

This is not the investment strategy of any fund manager in the world. Hold billions in cash and wait for the world to fall apart. But it is true – every 10 years or so, the financial world does fall apart and stock prices tank across the board. It happened in 2000 when the internet bubble burst, it happened in 2008 to 2009 when Wall Street imploded with the mortgage-backed bonds, it happened in 2020 with the COVID shutdown, and it will happen again and again.

And when it happens, stock prices will collapse, and the banks of the world will do what they always do, which is print tons of cash to pull us out of it, which will ultimately be bullish for stock prices. The hedge funds, mutual funds, and investment trusts of the world can’t play Buffett’s waiting game, they can’t sit on cash waiting for the mega opportunity. But Buffett can. And so can you!

10. “Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble.”

Buffett often talks about temperament. He means having the patience to wait for the right opportunity. By his own admission, he has sometimes sat waiting patiently for several years for the right investment opportunity to show up. And when it finally shows up, he takes full advantage and buys big.

Back in the 1980s, Buffett spent $US1.3 billion on Coca-Cola stock – which, today in 2024, is worth approximately $US24.4 billion. In the 1990s, he spent $US1.4 billion on American Express shares, which are now worth approximately $US32.4 billion. In the 2000s he bought $US14 billion worth of Bank of America stock, which was worth approximately $US35.1 billion in 2024 when he started thinning his position. In the 2010s, he spent $US31 billion for his Apple shares – which in the beginning of 2024 were worth a whopping $US176.8 billion before he started selling his position.

Invest big and win big if you follow in Buffett’s footsteps and buy shares in a company with a durable competitive advantage, and you buy it at a price that makes sense from a business perspective.

11. “There are a lot of businesses I wouldn’t buy even if I thought the management was the most wonderful in the world because they are simply in the wrong business.”

This goes back to something Buffett said in the 1990s: “When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for poor fundamental economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact.”

Some businesses have inherent underlying economics that are so bad that even the best managers in the world can’t improve upon them. These are usually companies that sell a commodity-type product or service in which there is a lot of price competition, that historically sees a repetitive cycle of boom and bust. In the boom years demand outstrips supplies, creating huge profit margins, but in the bust years, low demand kills their profit margins, and their fixed costs end up killing them.

You can easily identify these businesses by an erratic earnings history – losses some years, very profitable in other years. They never buy back their shares, and usually carry a large amount of debt. All of which tells you it’s the wrong business to own – no matter what the selling price is.

The New Tao of Warren Buffet by Mary Buffett and David Clark, is published by Simon & Schuster.

Warren Buffetts’ s 11 tips for investing and life2024-11-25T17:12:28+11:00

House prices fall in 40pc of Sydney Suburbs

House prices are now falling across two out of every five Sydney suburbs, a five-fold increase from a year ago, and the highest level in 20 months, data from CoreLogic shows.

The share of Melbourne suburbs where house values dropped in the past three months also blew out to 76.3 per cent, six times higher than last year.

Tim Lawless, CoreLogic’s research director, said the downturn was becoming more widespread as stock levels rose, borrowing capacity shrank and affordability worsened.

“We’re now seeing a fairly broad-based, but so far, mild downturn,” he said. “Sydney is still in the early phase of the downswing, so we’ll probably see more suburbs where house prices drop in the coming months.”

Sydney home values fell by 0.1 per cent last month, the first monthly decline in almost two years, while Melbourne dipped by 0.2 per cent as the housing outlook dimmed.

The number of Sydney suburbs where house prices fell over the past three months to October jumped to 225, up from just 46 last year.

Similarly in Melbourne, values have dropped across 290 suburbs, a sharp rise from only 48 a year ago.

Louis Christopher, SQM Research managing director, said house prices in both cities were on track to fall further in the coming months.

“Auction clearance rates are now falling in Sydney, well beyond the seasonal weakness, and we’re seeing a marked increase in distressed selling across Melbourne,” he said.

“There are now 1117 total distressed listings in Melbourne as of November 6, which is the highest level since we started tracking in 2020.

“In the past year distressed selling surged by 28.4 per cent, which tells me there are more property owners that are struggling financially, as confirmed by the rising default rates,” Mr Christopher said.

Moody’s Ratings analysis showed mortgage delinquency rates increased across the country over the year to May. Melbourne emerged as the epicentre of arrears. The portion of mortgage defaults across the city increased by 0.73 of a percentage point to 2.54 per cent, just behind Hobart, which posted a 1.3 percentage point rise in arrears to 2.68 per cent.

Melbourne dominated the top 20 suburbs with the highest mortgage default rates. Fourteen suburbs posted delinquency rates as high as 5.37 per cent. By contrast, many suburbs with the lowest default rates were in Brisbane and Sydney.

However, there are signs that worsening affordability has started to weigh across Brisbane, as house prices dropped in 36 suburbs out of 326, an eightfold rise from just four suburbs last year.

House values lower

Nationally, house values for about one out of three suburbs have drifted lower, which is more than double from a year ago.

By contrast, the number of Adelaide suburbs where house values fell over the past three months shrank by about half, while prices in all Perth suburbs rose during the same period.

The surge in listings across the biggest capitals has significantly outpaced demand, which has weighed on prices.

Total listings climbed by 7.1 per cent across Sydney over the past four weeks to November 3 compared to a year ago and lifted by 4.2 per cent and 4.9 per cent in Melbourne and Brisbane, respectively.

Total listings are now 13.2 per cent above the previous five-year average in Sydney and 13 per cent higher in Melbourne.

“Values are still falling in Melbourne because of a big increase in listings by disgruntled investors selling up in Victoria,” said Scott Kuru, co-founder of property investment advisory Freedom Property Investors.

“Nevertheless, this is a great time to buy in Melbourne. Melbourne property is seriously undervalued at the moment, especially when you look at population inflows – from overseas and other states – to what’s arguably now Australia’s largest city.

“Buying conditions probably aren’t going to get much better in Melbourne, but if you see a great investment grade property in Brisbane or Sydney I wouldn’t hang around on the off chance prices might decline,” he said.

Sydney downturn ‘accelerating’

The upper end of the housing market posted the sharpest decline of up to $326,000 in just three months as demand wanes amid higher borrowing costs and property prices.

House prices in Rodd Point in Sydney’s inner west, along with Abbotsford and Balmain East slumped by at least 7 per cent or the equivalent declines of between $221,797 and $325,846 during the same period. Those suburbs have also dropped by 8.2 per cent, 7.6 per cent and 2.1 per cent in the past 12 months respectively.

“The downturn in the top 25 per cent of the housing market, particularly in Sydney is clearly gaining some momentum,” Mr Lawless said.

“House values in this segment had been falling since June last year and in the past two months alone, they declined by 1.1 per cent, which is nearly twice as fast compared to the previous two months.

“So, it doesn’t look like this trend is turning around. It seems like it’s actually accelerating,” he said.

Across Melbourne, house values in inner suburbs Albert Park, South Melbourne and Port Melbourne tumbled by 9 per cent, 8.6 per cent and 8 per cent respectively, equating to a loss of between $132,882 and $213,677 in the past three months.

In Brisbane, Teneriffe led the largest drops in house values, at 4.8 per cent or a decline of $100,571 in the median.

House prices in suburbs within Adelaide’s Central and Hills district also weakened, with Hazelwood Park, Rosslyn Park and Kensington Garden posting 3 per cent, 2.6 per cent and 1.8 per cent respectively.

House prices fall in 40pc of Sydney Suburbs2024-11-25T17:06:59+11:00

Why Melbourne’s housing market is primed to outperform all capitals

Melbourne’s housing market could outperform Sydney and other capital cities once it emerges from its current downturn, boosted by a marked improvement in affordability after years of weak growth, experts say.

Nicola Powell, Domain’s chief of research and economics, said house price declines in Melbourne could gather momentum over the near term as listings rise faster than demand.

“I think Melbourne still has its challenges with taxation, higher supply and weaker population dynamics, so the immediate outlook is still one of a struggle,” she said.

“But I believe that once we see rates falling and particularly if we see a handful in succession, that is likely to be a spark for pricing.

“So in the next cycle, we’re likely to see Melbourne overperform because it has underperformed significantly compared to other capital cities since March 2020,” Dr Powell said. “That’s exactly what we’ve seen in Perth when it underperformed during the 2010s and then prices exploded in the 2020s as it played catch up.”

Melbourne-based property investor Patrick Van is counting on that sharp upturn and plans to ramp up his portfolio.

He is in the process of settling his second investment property in the city, a two-bedroom, two-bathroom off-the-plan apartment in North Melbourne, and aims to buy another in the coming months.

“I think Melbourne offers excellent value for money compared to other cities, and the state government just slashed stamp duty for off-the-plan properties,” he said.

“Even with higher interest rates and property tax, and despite the prospect of weaker capital growth over the next few months, I believe Melbourne will take off once interest rates start dropping next year.

“So I’m happy to sacrifice the lack of growth over a short period of time for the potential of making a windfall over the medium to long term because property investing is a long-term strategy, not a get-rich-quick scheme.”

AMP capital’s Shane Oliver said Melbourne could lift between 7 per cent and 8 per cent in the next upswing, while Sydney was on track to gain about 5 per cent.

Melbourne’s been lagging for some time, but it has made the property market relatively cheap compared to Sydney and the other cities,” he said.

“Because of its relative underperformance, it could bounce back a little bit quicker and sharper. ”

Since the onset of the pandemic in March 2020, Melbourne’s home values have increased by just 10 per cent.

By contrast, Sydney climbed 29 per cent, Brisbane was up 67 per cent, Adelaide jumped 71 per cent and Perth surged by 76 per cent, according to CoreLogic.

“It doesn’t make sense for Melbourne to stay the cheapest among the top five capital cities, so it is bound to come back and outpace any other capital city in Australia,” said Scott Kuru, co-founder of Freedom Property Investors.

“This is likely to happen because of lower interest rates, more affordable housing and government support. So, it’s only a matter of time before Melbourne becomes the second most expensive Australian city to buy a house in again.”

However, Ray White chief economist Nerida Conisbee said Melbourne’s recovery could take longer than market expectations.

“I think the downturn will be prolonged, even with rate cuts,” she said.

“I think there are other bigger problems that will take longer to fix, such as the prohibitive tax system, poor confidence and weak economy.”

Why Melbourne’s housing market is primed to outperform all capitals2024-11-25T17:00:38+11:00

Are you really ready to retire?

People who have enjoyed highly rewarding and fulfilling careers often struggle with when to retire.

They might feel they have enough money but wonder whether they’ll be bored, unchallenged or irrelevant.

Thinking about when to leave, how important work is for you, what makes you happy and how you will spend your time are important considerations.

I’ve spent the past 17 years researching the psychology of retirement and here are nine things to ponder as you plan for the next stage.

1. Six buckets

My research team and I suggest thinking about retirement in six buckets: physical (anything that keeps you mobile); financial (keeping track of finances); social (spending time with people); emotional (keeping emotions in check and positive); cognitive (learning new things and keeping active) and motivational (looking to the future and setting goals).

2. Work hard on your health

When we consult the latest edition of the ABS Retirement Intentions survey (2022-23), about a third of people will retire because they can access their super or pensions.

Others may be forced out by ill-health (13 per cent) and another 5 per cent will be retrenched, dismissed or have no work available.

The lesson here? Keep yourself well so you can retire when you want, and anticipate change where you can so you have your ducks lined up in case things don’t go as well as you planned.

One way to avoid deciding about when to retire is to let your health make the decision for you.

Health is something that probably cannot wait. Many people tell me they plan to eat better, relax more and exercise in retirement.

Are there some lifestyle changes you can make now to maximise your choices later and avoid being one of the 13 per cent leaving due to ill-health?

3. Aim to leave on your own terms

Two studies I’ve conducted with different samples over the past 17 years point to the fact that being forced out of work unexpectedly from ill-health or redundancy may make it more difficult to adjust to retirement.

Another Australian-based meta-analysis (a meta-analysis is the examination of data from a number of independent studies of the same subject to determine an overall trend) lists workplace exit conditions in the top five factors predicting life satisfaction at older age. Recognising the impact of work on your health should not be ignored.

4. Don’t assume staying at work as long as possible is right for you

Some insurers report mental health claims outstripping those of other illnesses (including cancer) so carrying on regardless when work is taking a toll might not necessarily be the best option.

Staying on and dying at your desk might not be your only career path. Think about ways to scale back if you need to – move to part-time, start succession planning and consider ways to strategically exit key projects or clients.

It is true that sometimes people get the timing wrong and try to get back to work after running out of money or getting bored, but this might be avoided with: a) a realistic assessment of what works means to you; b) a considered decision about when to leave; c) reflecting on how you will spend your time in retirement; and d) determining if will you have enough money before you leave work.

5. Fear of being bored is probably unfounded

With the abolishment of compulsory retirement age for all but a handful of occupations there is no deadline to leave work.

While it is true that some people find it difficult to adjust to life after work, in the main people adjust well and get happier over time.

Of course, if you are enjoying your work there is no need to retire unless you feel the time is right for you, or you are physically or cognitively compromised. The latter happens far less frequently than you might imagine.

In the main, concerns about being bored in retirement can be avoided and may be unfounded. Years ago I had a theory retirement would be a disaster for people highly invested in their careers. Guess what? I did not find what I was looking for. (That’s not to say it is not true, just that I could not find a relationship.)

What I did find was a lot of busy people transferring that work energy into other activities in retirement. Those who strongly identified with their work were no more or less adjusted to retirement than those who did not enjoy their work.

But it’s worth thinking about how you will spend your time. We estimate you will have 62 hours a week available to you when you retire. Thinking ahead to how you will spend that time can help identify some gaps you may not have considered.

Plan to go to the gym every day? Really? Every day? Maybe try it now – just once. But say you go to the gym 1.5 hours a day for five days a week, that’s 7.5 hours out of the 62 accounted for – only 54.5 hours to go.

Perhaps go for a few sessions before you retire so that you can figure out if it’s for you. You might love it or find that a boot camp, Pilates, walking or pickleball is more your thing.

6. Understand the role of ‘work centrality’

Years later, as I was investigating the careers of doctors, my team did find something interesting. Doctors were delaying retirement because of something known as work centrality (ie, how central work was to their identity).

This idea of dedication to career can start as soon as a person steps into training or their first role. I once worked with a medical student reviewing videos of doctors transitioning into retirement. He confessed he had done very little socially, sporting or extracurricular since he started his medical training.

Would you expect him to pick up the badminton bat or guitar again at 70? When you’ve been the expert in the room for the last 45 years it might be harder than expected to play the role of a newbie.

7. Practise the transition

Our research found only about 21 per cent of people who say they will take up new activities in retirement actually do so.

We also found the Creative Doctors Network, which involved a lot of doctors (some partially retired and others still working) who were doing interesting things – writing, poetry, bagpipe-playing, magic tricks, acting. Some had wound their practices down to part-time. Some had specialised in areas that they enjoyed. Others designed succession plans, so they became mentors.

Sadly, the Creative Doctors Network is no more. But it does illustrate the possibilities of investing in yourself while you are still working to make the transition easier.

The message here is to start easing yourself into networks and activities you plan to enjoy into retirement. Plan to play golf every week? Go four times a year now. Want to change gears and build a niche business? Start networking with your new colleagues and client base. Want to live off-grid in a hut on a hill? Book an Airbnb for a weekend/week/month. You get the idea.

8. It need not be an all-or-nothing affair

Our latest research of a national sample in a randomised control trial intervention is that when you combine career, health and financials you get a better result than just considering financial information alone.

Asking yourself, why do I want to leave? Is it my work I’m leaving? Or the organisation? Or my boss? If it’s the latter two, you might want to explore other options, such as becoming your own boss or finding another organisation better aligned to your values.

You may not need to leave it all behind immediately. Perhaps you could select and continue elements of your work, or work with a smaller group of select clients or projects. Could you specialise in some of the technical aspects of the same role?

Look around to find examples of flexible career paths – the lawyer who manages fewer long-term relationships, the academic who focuses on writing, the CEO who coaches successors.

9. The social stuff is really important

A more recent meta-analysis from the UK suggests that predictors of life satisfaction in older age are more related to physical capability and social support rather than a lack of work-related purpose.

Our own research prioritises wealth, health and social connections as predictors of retirement adjustment. And a meta analysis at the University of Queensland also reinforces social participation and physical health.

So rather than focusing on all those meetings and emails you will be missing, maybe it’s time to get invested in striving for good health and strategies for meeting new people.

Ask yourself, who is your new tribe? Other key questions are, who will you turn to when things get a bit tough, and what’s going to keep your brain active? The answers might be playing bridge, visiting a gallery or learning how to use that fancy camera you bought that’s stuffed in the back of the cupboard.

Start getting into the habit of setting those goals now. Not only will it help you get started, but it will pay dividends in promoting better retirement adjustment when you do retire.

Are you really ready to retire?2024-11-25T11:08:50+11:00